Of course these very low yields are for the perceived safety of government dept. There’s little intrinsically safe in any government dept other than the fact that they can print their own money when they run out of revenues, unlike everyone else. But there is a wide spread between government dept and various levels of corporate dept, especially in the lower rated issues. Investors are being paid high yields relative to the risk on the lower rated corporate side. These are unusual times, and they may be around a bit longer than most traders think.

It would seem obvious that with governments running up dept like crazy, with the eventual need to monetize that debt, that inflation would be starting to get priced into these markets, with yields starting to rise and bond prices dropping. Yet just the opposite is happening, so far. Bernanke has said that interest rates will stay at these low levels for at least another year or more. But markets tend to discount the future and so far they aren’t discounting much inflation.

Perhaps deflation is the larger fear. Perhaps the analogy of pushing on a string is still relevant. Until jobs and spending resume it will be difficult to have any pricing power no matter how much the governments around the world try to destroy their currencies. The resumption of more normal times may be a long way off.

Most traders I know, and some very smart traders, are heavily short bonds with very large and mounting losses. They all seem to have thrown their money management out the window. It seem so obvious that this bubble will soon burst, but what seems so obvious is usually wrong. The weekly chart above shows that the trend is still up. The momentum indicator in the middle sub-graph got a bit overbought and has kinked down, but the trend indicator is still up and the adaptive CCI in the lowest sub-graph is still hovering around the +100 line, indicating the trend is still alive. Meanwhile, I’m leaving the short side of this market alone from a trading point of view until these indicators indicate that the trend has changed direction. And I’m parking some money in the high yield end, as those spreads seem to be well compensating investors for the risk, especially in diversified bond funds (as boring as that sounds).

There are many indicators that work very well at certain times in certain market conditions. But there are no indicators that work well all the time. And at a time like this when news is driving the markets, it is best to not rely too heavily on technical analysis to guide trading decisions. The current market is especially difficult. The fundamentals are not supportive, in my opinion, of the kind of bull market we’ve seen over the last couple of years. But the reality is that the market has gone up a great deal and part of trading is to not fight a trend however illogical it may seem. It seems the buying is partly inspired by near zero interest rates resulting in a situation where there are few alternatives to earn a return, most likely with much of the money feeding the trend that would normally be going into safer investments. Then there are the momentum traders who en masse can keep a trend going just for the sake of the trend. Both these conditions almost always end poorly. Now add an increase in oil prices to an already high unemployment rates and mix that in with an administration that is becoming more inept by the day, and that all makes me wonder why anyone would pile onto this bull bandwagon. Yet people are. On almost every dip in the market the buyers come rushing back in. Lately all it seems to take is a few pennies dip in the price of oil to encourage the buyers. When you watch the market tick by tick all day you can sense the urgency of the buying. In markets of the past the buying would seem labored like an uphill climb, and then the sell offs would be characterized by a sense of urgency. This market seems to be just the opposite. It’s eerie. Is this an aberration or something to get used to? I don’t know. Many analysts think it is an artificial condition engineered by the fed, and I’d have to agree. Be careful of the downside. It could emerge in a more serious way. One of these days a down candle might not attract buyers.

The above chart shows one of the big momentum stocks of this bull market. In 2008 (off the scale of this chart) the stock was trading under 20, and on Valentine’s Day of this year the stock almost hit 250. So it’s over a ten bagger. Today the stock just filled that big gap up from January 27th. The trend appears to be reversing, even on a big up day in the overall market. For a long time one could just buy all the pullbacks to the moving average lines and many would have worked out profitably. You can see the last couple of days the stock moved up to the declining moving average lines and has since fallen back. I’m only showing this stock as this pattern seems to be showing up in many of the favorites of the momentum crowd. And many of these stocks were very crowded with bulls. And of course when that’s the situation, something’s gotta give.

It’s really hard to believe that CNN had to apologize for a guest using the word “cross-hairs.” Didn’t they have a show called “Crossfire?” I wonder how many shootings were caused by people becoming violent when they saw the listing for that show in their TV Guide? Don’t both parties use the term “battleground states?” And John Boehner won’t refer to the health care bill as “job killing” and changed it to something a bit tamer. I think the latest version is “job crushing,” but maybe that’s even too harsh. Maybe not. I didn’t see him cry when he said it. The politically correct thought police really must think we’re a bunch of morons. Because one crazy person decided to go on a shooting rampage we now have to change our language, just like millions of us now have to take off our shoes at airports because of one crazy passenger. I suppose Microsoft will have to take out the bullet points feature from their Word software. Some mild secretary might become crazed and violent when she’s typing a letter and asked to put in bullet points.

Back to the markets. The above chart of F5 Networks is not a stock I trade, but thought it was interesting to show how quickly a bubble can pop. This stock was around $18 a couple of years ago, and recently went as high as $145. When a story is well known and all investors pile on an overcrowded bandwagon, the rush for the exit can become a stampede. Certainly a lot of money can be made riding the trend. It is difficult to know when the trend starts to accelerate only for the sake of itself, rather than future prospects based on fundamentals. There are many stocks that seem to be in this situation. It’s amazing to watch talking heads on the financial news shows that suggest these bubbles still have a long way to go, and try to justify their valuations, even calling them fairly priced as their price charts have gone parabolic. When the stock inevitably breaks down the talking heads, along with chat rooms, bulletin boards, and other market commentators suddenly stop talking about yesterday’s stock and are off chasing the next bubble. I’ve felt gold and silver have been in that bubble territory for some time, and there are finally signs that the trend, at least this phase of it, is tiring. I do feel the fundamentals in gold are sound and that the long term bull market is still intact. It just needs to shake off the momentum traders and build a new base for the next leg of bull market.

But how to determine when to get off the bandwagon prior to the bubble bursting is the difficult question with no clear answer. I think technical analysis can be a great help. In the case of the above chart there is clearly an over-bought condition from the double stochastic indicator in the sub-graph. It turned down from over-bought territory prior to the big gap down. However, looking back at the chart over the past couple of years would reveal similar over-bought reading, even with divergences, that did not call a top, with the indicator turning back up and the market going ever higher. But when a market or stock accelerates in a parabolic fashion it is best to not get greedy and to let someone else get the last bit of the move. The above chart even had a double top that would suggest that the parabolic move might be ending. Another thing to gauge is sentiment, which of course is quite subjective. When sentiment is all of one opinion, the opposite opinion is probably the side to start thinking about, especially if the trend is just feeding on itself.

I read an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal last week. I know it is now this week. I’m a little behind in my reading. Anyway, the article talks about how the U.S. is losing ground on economic freedom. You coulda fooled me. According to this article the U.S. is now ranked number 9, right behind Denmark, if you can believe that. I’m surprised it is not ranked lower. With the desires of many on the progressive left who view France as the model we should follow it would seem we would be much lower on the list. France actually came in at number 64. I suppose if the Hollywood left had their way, with their love of Castro and Chavez, we would be much nearer the bottom. In fact Venezuela came in at number 175, with Cuba a close second at number 177. Only Zimbabwe and North Korea were below that, at number 178 and 179 respectively. I wonder if Michael Moore and Sean Penn would give up their millions, their careers, and all their possessions if the U.S. would adopt the kind of government they seem to want for the rest of us. It’s a dumb question. The answer is obvious.

One thing that seems obvious is that this market needs some sort of pullback, or at least a rest. Many are starting to call for this and say they are ready to buy after a decent pullback. As long as the trend remains up that would be the logical thing to do. But one would probably be better off not reading the news. As bullish as everything looks I still must look for signs that the crowd might be wrong and the correct trade might be in the other direction. That’s probably the curse of being a contrarian. Much has been made of the declining volume during the December rally. But December always has a drop off in volume for obvious reasons. I place more weight on divergences between correlated markets. Small caps have been quite strong and seem to have a mind of their own, but I think a more important correlation exists between the S&P and Nasdaq. Many market turning points in the past have been accompanied by divergences between these indeses. You can see the nice positive divergence between the S&P and Nasdaq that occurred leading up to the December rally. I have little red lines drawn on the above chart to show that. This divergence indicated a continuation rather than reversal. Momentum had been stronger on the Nasdaq from the lows last August, but did start to slow down a bit relative to the S&P during the December rally. It did appear almost to be rolling over prior to the gap up today. Now they both seem to be in gear to the upside, but I’ll be watching closely to see if any divergences show up between these markets in the days ahead. A broader divergence could develop despite the action today, especially if the Nasdaq should fall below the moving averages, which are closer together than those on the S&P. So far there are few clues that this market will ever go down, but that could change quickly.

The gold market has also been quite strong lately and has still been grabbing lots of attention and is being well advertised. It has carved out a very well defined three-drives-to-a-high pattern, and is now trying to negate that by driving to a fourth high. Although this time there is some weakness between the price of gold and the price of some of the gold miners. I know there are many who claim that gold mining stocks no longer correlate to the price of gold because of rising mining costs, environmental wackos, new etfs, etc. I still look at divergences between gold and companies that mine the stuff. The chart of Agnico-Eagle (AEM) shows a striking example of such a divergence. This particular stock has diverged more than most. The broader indexes of miners and many other gold stocks are more subtle in this divergence. But it is interesting at a time when almost everyone, including establishment analysts who never followed gold, are now universally forecasting gold to be much higher in the months ahead, at the same time many of the shares of companies that mine gold are not following the price higher, and some like AEM seem to be entering downtrends. I’m still bullish long term and am still holding most of my core position in ABX and a few others, but the relentless bullishness is worrisome, and I think more of a worry than what would be considered a normal wall of worry.

I do hope to be posting on the blog on a more regular basis. I’ve said this before. It’s difficult to find time. Part of the problem is that most of my analysis is geared toward Market Profile and option spreads, and I’m not sure if enough people are interested. Maybe that doesn’t matter. I should just write as if keeping a trading diary, which is what the idea was when I started this. I may move this blog more in that direction in the coming year.

Then the markets got a further boost from QE2, which is more appropriately being called Titanic 2 by many commentators. I guess the market thinks by destroying what’s left of the US Dollar that stocks should be valued, or at least priced, at higher levels. Those in power will do everything they can to inject a little adrenaline into the system rather than to cure the underlying problem. Cure would be more painful short-term, and nobody wants to take the blame. There seems to be no end to the cycle of monetizing debt. But there will be an end at some point, and that end will be much more painful when it arrives. It will be interesting to see if this new crop of Republicans can make a real attempt to get spending under control. If so their might be hope. Although they’ll likely suffer in public opinion for doing so. All I know is they can’t keep printing money. Bernanke seems too obsessed with the threat of deflation. It seems like we are already in the midst of deflation. The common wisdom (there’s an oxymoron) is that all this stimulation will cause inflation, and that gold and other commodities will keep on climbing. It seems logical. The dollar isn’t the only currency falling. It seems logical that gold can only keep going up. That trade has about as close to a 100% bullish opinion by traders as I’ve ever seen. Also bullish are of course copper and other industrial metals fueled by China demand in addition to the falling dollar. I have to think that everything just said, and everything being said in the financial press, is already priced into these markets. With the trade so one-sided I have to think that there must be something wrong with the common wisdom. It is possible that all the stimulation in the world might not be enough to fend off deflation. If the job market fails to improve and if housing prices keep sliding it would be difficult to make a case for inflation any time soon, even with the concerted effort to destroy the currency. Maybe I’m just indulging in my contrarian nature. Maybe inflation is just around the corner and all the traders buying into that concept are correct. Maybe it will be different this time in that all the traders crowding out the same side of the trade will all be correct and all make money. I’ve never seen that happen. But there’s always a first time.

Regarding the stock indexes, way up at the top of this post is the chart of the S&P 500 ETF. It shows the clear uptrend via the blue adaptive moving average lines. In the middle sub-graph is the adaptive CCI, this time with a slight smoothing to smooth out the bumps a bit. It shows that the CCI went above the plus 100 line just as this uptrend got started, and mostly stayed there, with the exception of a couple of brief dips, until just a couple of sessions ago. The double stochastic in the bottom sub-graph shows some nice entry points when it dipped below the lower reference line while the CCI showed a trending condition. The stochastic is once again below the lower reference line, however this time the CCI is nearing its zero line, and price is about to test the uptrending moving averages, as well as a swing point high from about three weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if this uptrend starts to roll over. If it does there will most likely be more rally attempts, and perhaps more two-sided and overlapping price action. I hear many analysts talking about a year end rally, but those usually follow weak September of October markets. This time the market has been straight up during those two months. There might not be enough left for a further rally into the end of the year. It will likely try, so I’ll be keeping an eye on a bounce off the moving averages to see if it stalls out on a potential re-test of the highs. If that re-test, should it occur, doesn’t attract volume then it is likely to re-test back down with perhaps a more meaningful decline to follow.

I will try to update as this unfolds. No promises though. It seems the S&P comments are also applicable to the gold market.

And regarding politics, I see little need to continue to bash the president and his inept administration. It should be obvious to anyone interested in the news to see he’s doing a great job in becoming the worst president in many years, possible in history. And the news keeps coming. Today I hear he now wants NASA to have its main objective to reach out to Muslims and make them feel better about themselves and their scientific contributions. That sounds like a joke, but that’s what was in the news today. I guess that’s fine, but isn’t NASA supposed to have something to do with exploring outer space? I can’t wait to see what the news will be tomorrow. I don’t see how the financial markets can survive if this idiocy continues from the government. I thought that the previous rally was being fueled by the falling poll numbers. The numbers continue to fall, but now the market is falling. I still think that was fueling the previous rally, at least to some degree. New information came into the market with the European problems. If the Euro stabilizes and if democrats have declining poll numbers going into the fall elections, I think the market could rally again. At least temporarily. I suspect we are in a primary bear market, and the full expression of the bear could extend much further than most can imagine. Rallies can be quite deceptive for those who want to be bullish. It is instructive to study past primary bear markets. But don’t expect the patterns to overlap. Each market cycle will express itself in its own way. It drives me nuts when I see people finding a pattern of swings from 80 years ago and expect that the same patterns will occur today in the same sequence. They never do. But the psychology and the sharpness of the counter trend rallies are interesting to study, and that can be applied to current markets in a general way.

I’ve been trading very little over the last couple of months. I do hope to get on a more regular schedule of updating this blog. But I’ve said that before. Sometimes distractions can get in the way of well intended plans. It is difficult to blog when I don’t have positions in the markets. I’m clearing away the distractions and hope to be fully back in the markets within the next few weeks, so hopefully this blog will become more active. I also have quite a few more technical articles I have partially written. If I can just find the time to finish those and get them posted.

A quick thought on moving averages. I read many opinions on the market and technical analysis. Almost everyone I hear or read uses the 20, 50, and 200 period moving average. When I ask them why, their only response is “that is what everyone uses, so it becomes self fulfilling. I have a problem with that line of thought. First, it is true that any of those three moving averages seem to provide support at certain swing points, and once penetrated they do seem to give a good summary of the trend direction. But one can pick any period moving average at random and also find that it will provide support at certain swing points and provide a good indication of trend. Probably different swing point and trend indication, but any moving average will appear to turn back a swing occasionally, and certainly will define a trend. And most randomly chosen averages will define a trend if it happens to be in sync with the ever changing cycles of the market. In fact a moving average is nothing more than a mechanism to filter out the shorter cycles. The problem is the cycles keep changing. So no single moving average can be perfect. So many traders use a combination of several moving averages in the hopes that one will be in sync with the market. That can be fine as long as the trader understands what the moving average is really doing. Blindly following common moving average lengths because everyone else seems to be using them is not logical in my opinion. There is no edge in what everyone can see. I don’t see how it is logical that a trend will turn around when it hits the 50 period moving average on the assumption that everyone will act in some way at that point. That just doesn’t make sense. If there were an edge in such an approach the market would quickly eliminate that edge.

I find it much more useful to use indicators that attempt to adapt in real time to the ever-changing market cycles. The problem is trying to find a method that extracts the cycle the market is attempting to express as that cycle is being formed. If markets maintained the same cycle over a long period it would be easy to pick the best moving average parameters. But the cycles are a constantly moving target. The best work I’ve seen in extracting cycles as they are forming is the work by John Ehlers. The moving averages I’ve been using on the blog are his Mesa Adaptive Moving Average. I just use the default parameters as he has written the formula, which is widely available on the interent, in one of his books, and on his website, as I recall.

And a quick note on gold. This is one market that has fundamentals supporting the uptrend. But a negative development is the failure occurring this week as the market tried to break-out of the swing high from last December. The trend is still up, but so far that break-out looks like a trap. The daily chart is sitting right on the moving average line, so I’ll be watching to see if it provides support. My guess is that the market needs to clean out the excessive bullish sentiment, which would probably be a healthy thing. I’ll try to update as this develops.

Regarding sentiment, it seems that bears either disappeared or were unusually silent during the last part of the upmove. I even heard some seasoned trader who should know better say that maybe there is no more downside to the market. That this time is indeed different. Whenever you hear “this time is different” it is time to start looking at the opposite side of the trade. This time has never been different for as long as I can remember.

Regarding the technical condition of the market, which this blog is about despite my digressions, the trend has certainly quickly changed from up to down. It is easy to hunt indicators after the fact to try to find something that gave advanced warning of this drop. I’ve been getting many such emails from chat rooms that claim to have predicted this. I didn’t get any of those emails prior to the drop, only after the fact. I’ve been showing the same trend indicators, which are those blue lines over the price bars. The lines crossed over to the bearish side on May 4th. The adaptive CCI in the sub-graph actually crossed under the plus 100 line on April 27th warning that the trendiness of the market was waning. Not a sell signal by itself in my opinion, but a good yellow light. As long as the trend indicators remain bearish I expect to sell rallies. When markets make multi-standard deviation moves like we’ve seen over the last couple of sessions it is probably best to let things settle down a bit. There could certainly be a big bounce back up to those moving averages. But there was much damage done, and despite the bullishness regarding recovery and improving earnings, the backdrop is far from bullish in my opinion. I think the market finally got a good dose of reality and I suspect there is much more to come.

I’ve had a long time fear of electronic markets. I don’t think computers should be allowed to replace humans. I know it is happening very quickly. The end of trading pits and posts are fast approaching. But I think it is a very bad idea. So call me old-fashioned.

Certainly trend follows are being paid well. Those who believe in reversion to the mean are not having as good a time. Trend follows rely on catching the outlier move, such as the move we are experiencing. Many other markets, especially in the hot commodity arena, have had similar moves over the past few years, and they all experienced rapid and steep declines when the trends became one-directional. Trend followers can get whipsawed for a very long time when a market does what it normally does the vast majority of the time. These outlier moves are needed by trend followers to recoup the many trading losses incurred during more normal times. When a market is trending but still experiencing corrections along the way the market is in a much more healthy position in my opinion. I prefer markets that swing in both directions, but I also have learned through experience to stay out of the way of a freight train. I do have trouble jumping on board a fast moving freight train. The general public seems to want to jump on board when it is running fast and out of control.

One of the indicators that I’ve talked about many times on this blog is the adaptive CCI, which you can see in the sub-graph of the chart above of the IWM. (IWM is the etf for the Russell 2000.) I use it to gauge the trendiness of the market. It was designed to signal a long or short position when it is above or below the plus or minus 100 line, which is drawn with the dashed cyan lines. It is rarely used today in that manner, but that was the concept. You can see on the above chart that this indicator has been basically above the plus 100 line almost since this rally began. When this condition persists I don’t want to fight the trend. Of course the trend could abruptly reverse without warning. But trying to play for a reversal with techniques such as stochastic divergences will usually result in losses as long as the trend is so powerful. Of course a divergence will usually work at some point and call the top of the move. But there could be many divergences preceding the one that finally works  that will result in many losses. This trend will eventually run out of fuel, and once it does rallies can be sold as they bump up against a declining trend, but as long as the trend is up I will try to resist temptation to short this market. No guarantees. It is very tempting to take a stab at a reversal. The action today looks a bit like an upthrust in some of the indexes and certain stocks. In a more normal market that might inspire some selling. But as long as buyers, that is funds, with lots of cash look for every downtick to pounce on the long side of this market, one may as well throw out the technicals. A correction, or even a collapse, could come at any moment, without warning, without a reason, and without any technical indication. Well, maybe this time is different. Maybe obama has outlawed the downside of markets for the rest of time and this market will actually climb to the moon. That’s what buyers must be thinking, that is if they are thinking. But their trading models don’t think, they just climb on board the trends, and those trading models work out occasionally – on the outliers.

The chart above is of the S&P etf. The uptrend starting with the reversal bar on February 5th has been a steady march higher through March, with only very few down candles. The adaptive CCI indicator under the price candles shows a persistent reading over the plus 100 line, which is bullish and shows trendiness of the trend. It is rare that the adaptive CCI stays this long over either the plus or minus 100 line. It is usually prudent to not fight the trend when that indicator is beyond either of those lines, even when it seems a bit extended as it does now. A more normal pattern on that indicator looks more like on the left of the chart. The middle indicator is one version of the Chaikin money flow. It incorporates volume in its calculation, and you can see it is weakening a bit. This is not enough to turn bearish. It is just an indicator indicating something, but is not a forecast or signal on its own. The bottom indicator is share volume on the S&P etf, which clearly shows increasing volume on the downtrends, and generally declining volume on the uptrends. Bulls will argue that the public is not yet in this market so volume remains low. Bears would argue that this is a divergence. These divergences can go on for a long time.

One argument I’m hearing is that the market is shrugging off bad news while it continues higher. The health care bill passing has been recently offered as an argument that something very bad for business and the economy failed to produce any down movement in the market, therefore the market is bullish. This is a rule offered in many textbooks on trading. I find fault with this. It is true that in an extended trend there is validity to the concept that if a market fails to respond to news that should further the trend, that trend might be ending. For example, a stock that has been declining for many months on declining earning has an increasingly dismal earning report, and then the stock price fails to continue lower and instead has a large move higher, a reversal to an uptrend might be indicated. In that case the stock has over discounted the worse possible news. But with many months into an uninterrupted uptrend I’m not sure that theory works. On the contrary, as a contrarian I would view any positive news that fails to move the market yet higher to be a sign of a possible top. So far that has not happened, but I am keeping an eye open to the possibility.

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the employment report released yesterday. The index futures market was open for a short time during and after the release of the report and they moved somewhat higher. Most of the news media is reporting the report positively, despite the fact that the unemployment rate did not improve, the U-6 actually inched higher, much of the newly employed were temporary census workers, and hourly pay declined. That probably means nothing to this market. If viewed positively or negatively the market seems on an unending move to the moon. Some traders act as if this uptrend is something new. Many markets that get overextended exhibit similar characteristics. But they usually occur when that market is making new highs or lows. Gold recently had a similar move, as did the dollar on the downside. Stock indexes have had several similar moves over the years. What seems different is that this move is only retracing a portion of the previous down impulse rather than probing into new high ground. It seems like the move will never end. Momentum traders keep piling on the bandwagon no matter how crowded it gets, despite relatively low volume. These urgent, almost panic type moves seem to occur more on the downside than the upside, at least in equity indexes. If this trend would just pause long enough to catch its breath and digest some of the gains the trend would appear healthier. The way this is proceeding the resolution could be to the downside with a larger move than a market that allows itself to breath in and out.

One thing I think this market is missing is the threat from Obama. Obamacare passed without so much as a hiccup from the market. The cost to business will be huge. There are already businesses that have announce huge write-downs, and they are being questioned by the government for making those announcements. Isn’t that what they would do under someone like Castro or Chavez? Taxes will rise for everyone. The market doesn’t seem to care. The government will take over a huge chunk of the economy and eventually force private insurers out of business. The market is looking the other way. I believe the next step in Obama’s plan is to attack Wall Street, much more than he has done already. Obama knows that he will be rendered impotent if the republicans take over congress in the elections later this year. He knows that his healthcare takeover is not popular and as things stand now his party stands a good chance of losing both the house and the senate. He must divert attention from the health care mugging and the shady tactics used by the progressive democrats in congress. The news media has already vilified Wall Street. It doesn’t matter that the public should be mad at the government influence over Fannie Mae and the like, as well as strong suggestions to banks that they lend to those they shouldn’t lend to. Reality doesn’t matter. The public is like a school of fish that can simultaneously change direction in an instant. Obama is a gifted speaker. He is smart and shrewd. He can create anger against Wall Street and the anger against Obamacare will be seen receding in the rear view mirror, just in time for the mid-term elections.

Another fear is that the teaparty movement could split the republican vote. If candidates split from the republican party to run on a teaparty ticket, that would greatly help the democrats, obviously. If the progressive democrats can hold congress through the balance of Obama’s term, they will most likely be able to pass immigration reform, therefore allowing millions of new voters to vote, and they will of course vote for democrats. If that should happen the republican party may as well call it a day and go home. They will never be able to win another election. This country will move so far to the left it will become even more unrecognizable than it is today. We may as well just become good buddies with Castro and Chavez. Freedom and free markets will become a distant memory. The coming mid-term election may well be one of the most important elections in this country’s history.

This is one time that I truly hope I am wrong in my forecast. This country is at an important crossroads. If we take the left fork in the road we will go down a path of no return. I don’t think the stock market understands the bigger picture yet. It will.

Also, I just received an email from INO. They are offering a free 2 week trial to their market timing service. Included is some information on candlestick charting and another ebook by Adam Hewison. I don’t think a credit card is required for the trial, but not sure. Their service is worth a look. If anyone is interested click here.