Comments on: Stock rally continues, S&P at highest level since Jan 12th

By: Doug Tucker

Doug Tucker — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:58:59 +0000

BigFurHat, you are right. Thanks for bringing your artwork to my attention. I found the image with your credit already cropped out, so had no way of knowing the origin of the image. But it was very funny and I had to have it on my blog. Now that I found the origin, I reposted the image with your blog link, and also put the link at the end of this post, along with a link on my links tab.

By: BigFurHat

BigFurHat — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 05:16:19 +0000

C’mon guys. I can’t have my artwork being reposted with the credits sheared off the bottom.
The Walking on Water art is mine,
BigFurHat of iOwnTheWorld.com

I know I am going to be portrayed as petty, but what if I took your blog posts and posted them on my site with no credit, implying that I wrote it?

By: Bob M

Bob M — Thu, 14 May 2009 12:38:09 +0000

Nice (enough) profits with a trailing stop which will no doubt get hit while I am out running errands as the market turns back up

By: Bob M

Bob M — Wed, 13 May 2009 10:45:38 +0000

I could not stand it. I shorted the Dow (again) at the close yesterday. Gold was up 10 or 12 bucks, interest rates edging down and usd/jpy SPIKING down all tell me money is coming out of stocks. Of course, with TRILLIONS of freshing printed money floating around, the normal relationships are very suspect. BUT, ultimately, BECAUSE normal relationships ARE suspect, I find it hard to have confidence in the rally. So I continue to find places to short with tight stops (last 8 trades: up about 1% ) waiting for the swoosh down. But this is bound to be a screwy day with all the data set for release.

By: Doug Tucker

Doug Tucker — Sat, 09 May 2009 04:59:41 +0000

Sri, Thanks for your kind comment regarding my blog.
The BDI has increased a bit off the lows, but when taking a longer term view it still looks like a dead cat bounce. The current rebound is pushing up against the price area from early 2006. There are many factors influencing the price such as US Dollar and oil prices, but ultimately the price can only go up with an increase in world demand, and especially demand from China. Even with the recent rebound in the BDI, it doesn’t seem like demand is on much of an upswing. It seems the US stock markets are rebounding independent of global demand for raw materials. This still seems like a bear market rally, with the BDI being one piece of the puzzle that lends support to that scenario, as it doesn’t seem to be leading the charge. This rally in the stock indexes seems similar to rallies in many past major bear markets.
I’ll try to get a chart up on the BDI in the next few days. I haven’t posted a chart for several weeks, so overdue. Thanks, Doug

By: Sri

Sri — Fri, 08 May 2009 15:48:16 +0000

Hi Doug, your insight is awesome. Just discovered your blog and have bookmarked it for good. I have been interested in mapping the Baltic dry Index for a while now. I too try and transpose it manually on to the Dow from time to time to see how much of an indicator it really is at any point in time. Any thoughts now about BDI, given the latest market sentiment indicates an uptick in the US economy?

Thanks
-Sri

By: Andrew Stanton

Andrew Stanton — Tue, 05 May 2009 17:47:39 +0000

It’s taken me many years to learn that “the market” is only the opinion of a large number of people at that moment in time. The big variable in stock prices is not earnings but rather the multiple that is placed on those earnings and that is purely a subjective measure at the mercy of changes in mass psychology. A stock trading at $3 this month is just as “correct” as at $9 next month on the same earnings. The stock didn’t change; the crowd’s appetite for those earnings did. This is why price targets on stocks are so useless. Analysts are very good at estimating earnings and that is how they are rated. The problem is that giving a price target requires putting a multiple on those earnings and that is futile since there is no way to know what the crowd will be willing to pay next month, let alone in six or twelve months.

By: Kevin Jackson

Kevin Jackson — Tue, 05 May 2009 17:43:50 +0000

Thanks for the props on the pic, and my blog. I enjoyed yours as well…The Black Sphere