Dow up a bit, Nasdaq down


Stocks ended the day with the S&P and Dow little changed while the Nasdaq continued down. The chart above shows the Nasdaq etf in the upper graph, and the S&P etf in the lower graph, along with the mesa adaptive moving average on each. I had been somewhat more favorable toward the Nasdaq over the last couple of month, and more negative toward the S&P. You can see that the July low in the S&P made a lower low, while the Nasdaq held that point at a high low. Therefore it seemed that the price structure was somewhat better on the Nasdaq. Then the small rally near the right side of the chart had a bit more enthusiasm that on the S&P. However in the last few days the Nasdaq has been falling faster, leading the way down, and is getting a bit closer to the July low that is the S&P. The Nasdaq is still holding up better relative to the S&P going back several months. All this time the advance/decline ratio has been in the basement, but has at least stopped going down for now in both markets. It seems the feel of these markets are more bearish than bullish, but I took the bear out of the box and replaced it with a roller coaster, as that more accurately reflects my mood at the moment. I wish I could be more definite and say something more specific, but the markets aren’t giving clear indications to me at the moment. The drop in commodities has been the most obvious and clear of the signals, which I’ve talked much about in these posts. If commodities can continue down in the longer run that should obviously help stocks eventually. Hopefully my indicators will clear up. Meanwhile I’ll just be patient and stay out of trouble.

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