Just a quick post tonight. It’s late. There was a summer picnic on a very nice, sunny but cool summer evening in the Northwest. The S&P etf chart to the left shows the momentum divergence at the extremely oversold level from last week. I had hoped prices would recover back up to the declining moving averages. The price today just touched the upper, or longer term moving average almost to the tick. You can see that the big short covering bar from four sessions ago has not had very enthusiastic follow-through. On a closing basis price had moved a bit higher after that big upthrust bar, but you can see the small bar ranges, and the closes at or lower than the opening prices. Also, volume has dropped off on the rally, as opposed to volume increasing on the previous downmove. The advance/decline ratio has upticked a slight amount, but is still in a clearly defined downtrend. Now with short-term momentum overbought, price up against the moving average as well as a bit of a shelf from a couple of weeks ago that offered some resistance, it looks like a re-test back down would be the path of least resistance. Crude looks like it may have started the long awaited downtrend. I re-test back up part way with a failure would help confirm that this won’t be another fake-out. Gold has formed a nice uptrend with the second pullback to the moving average just occuring. I’ll try to get charts of oil and gold up tomorrow.