Stock indexes end mixed to lower, oil lower

q0707.pngStock indexes tried to rally today on lower oil and commodity prices. There was much selling on the rally attempts. Most stock indexes closed lower, with the Nasdaq the lone winner. On the chart you can see to price rejection tails left on the bars on the last two trading sessions. The price rejection is also in the area of the fib 61.8% retracement from the March lows to the June highs. The trend is still firmly to the downside, which is stating the obvious. Momentum, while very oversold, has not traced out a very convincing pattern that would suggest much of a bounce. The double stochastic, in the lower sub-graph, is staying oversold rather than creating cycle highs and lows. Still, if this support area should hold and inspire some bargain hunting, perhaps prices can get back up into the moving average area, which could set up a good short. The S&P looks less hopeful for a rally. There was a slight price rejection last Thursday, but the session today broke that longer term support, with the market closing near the previous session lows. The Nasdaq has been the stronger market and should, but not necessarily, have an easier time bouncing, that is should there be a bounce. Crude oil had fallen sharply in the early part of the session, but buying came in at the lows and the market closed well off the lows, with the uptrend stlil intact. There has been some momentum divergences, but nothing so far that stands out from the many divergences over the past few months that have failed. At most the divergences preceded moves only back to the steeply uptrending moving averages. Eventually a divergence will most likely call the top to this bubble, but it is a difficult game to sell them as long as the trend remains up.

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