Stocks and Oil higher, Dollar falls

qqqq0605.pngStock indexes rallied sharply today, despite crude oil being over $5 higher. The Nasdaq/QQQQ took out the high pivot of May 19th. You can see on the chart that the lows of two and three days ago held at the lower moving average. Momentum also stayed positive within the uptrend, although the short term momentum had turned down. With volume increasing on some of the down days and the very negative action in the advance/decline line I had some concern about this uptrend coming to an end. The Nasdaq volume on the rally today was still unconvincing in my opinion. The S&P held a low pivot from a couple of weeks ago, which was encouraging for the bulls, but price is still well below the May 19th high. Crude oil regained just today nearly half the loss of the last couple of weeks. Maybe too many people were trying to call the top and got caught short. I was very tempted to join the shorts, but I’m trying to maintain my discipline of only trading in the direction of the trend. It is difficult to not be tempted to go short when there seems to be little reason for a market to be so high. Bubbles, or at least large uptrends don’t pop or die easily. When the trend finally turns down there should be many rallies to short against. Corn pushed to a new high today as the ethanol hoax stays alive. Sometimes the markets and reality are not on the same page.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *