Stocks lower

xlf0602.pngStock indexes sold off today. There was some rebound later in the day. The trend remains up but is weakening, and momentum is starting to roll over. Volume picked up a bit today on the downmove, and had been declining on the price upmove, which isn’t a good sign for the bulls. The chart to the left is of the financial sector etf, that seems to be leading the decline today. You can see that the trend indicator (blue lines) has been down. Momentum hasn’t been able to rise and is now turning back down in the direction of the trend from about the mid-level of the range. This index is sitting on a previous pivot from mid-April. If support doesn’t come in soon and this pivot is taken out there could easily be new lows in this index, which would weigh on the overall market. The Nasdaq has been the strongest of the major indexes, with the S&P very close to the moving averages crossing to a downtrend. The advance/decline line on both the Nasdaq and S&P are starting to break down. I’ll post a chart tomorrow. I am less encouraged about the uptrend at this point. The Nasdaq, which has been a leader, has a potential double top, with the corresponding points on the S&P turning down from a lower point and under the moving averages. Of course that potential double top could be taken out, but with the trend weakening, it could be time for a pause or reversal in the recent uptrend. Also, weekly momentum is overbought and rolling over in both indexes. Oil is still in an uptrend, with short term momentum oversold. There seems to be too many people calling for a top right now. I still think this is a bubble that will pop, but it may be too soon to call a top. There may be another rally that will put an end to those calling for a top. If so, then a top could occur. The market will do what it must to confuse and frustrate the most people (myself included).

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