Stock indexes mixed, commodities fall on higher dollar

The main action today was the rally in the dollar on the perceived ending of the interest rate slashing cycle, even if the Fed cuts on Wednesday. Commodities in general got clobbered today on the stronger dollar. With many of the commodity markets being in, or recently having been in bubble territory, it is not too surprising to see them fall back when the main driver of the move, the falling dollar, looks like it is going to change trend. I’ve been warning of this for some time, although I was very early in my views, as I was being influenced more by ridiculously one-sided market sentiment rather than a change in fundamentals. Hopefully there will be bounces in the commodities and commodity related stock to short against. Many still believe the commodity story is alive and well and are welcoming this retreat to get long, which will probably result in some fairly healthy bounces along the way. There isn’t much to say ahead of the Fed announcement regarding the stock indexes. Trends remain up on light volume and short-term momentum rolling over. I would welcome some pullback in here, but it is a flip of the coin ahead of Fed day.

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