Commodities drop, stocks hold

Not much to say about stock indexes. The trends are trying to turn up, and the recent pullback seems to be holding. It was a fairly small range day. It would be nice to see some upside with increasing volume. It just might happen. I’m still worried about that much advertised double bottom. It would be strange that something so expected actually working out. The market has a way to foil consensus projections. But I always have to worry about something. Regarding commodities, the soybean and wheat market got hit hard today on planting news. Traders who chase momentum need to realize that trading stocks and trading commodities are not the same thing. Commodities have a habit of reversion to the mean. The cure for high prices is increase supply, and the cure for low prices is to cut off supply. If speculation or shortage or both cause way too high of a price in soybeans, then farmers will just plant more soybeans to increase supply, and then prices will come back down. If metal prices are too high, then lower grade ore can be mined, and new mines will be found and developed. If prices are too low, then why bother, and supply will shrink until too low prices bring in buying, and when prices get too high, producers will bring in more supply. Etc., etc., etc. Stock traders look at a chart like aapl or goog and think they can trade commodity trends in the same manner. Some stocks can have fundamentals that will drive earnings to levels that can be sustained, and if growth is strong enough, those earnings trends can last a long time and keep the trend going. The mean can be a steep uptrend. In commodities the supply and demand will be go back and forth, perhaps with a trend to reflect inflation and currency differentials. But what goes up in commodities can easily come back down when high prices create new supply. It wouldn’t be surprising to see commodities start a major reversion to the mean, and in a very mean way. 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *