Long weekend and CCI out to the woodshed

I took a long weekend off after all the turbulence in the stock and commodity markets over the last few days. The commodity bubble seems to have popped, although there’ll probably be attempted recovery rallies. I doubt these rallies will restart the commodity bull, but you never know. I’ll play it day by day. The dollar has recovered nicely with some momentum divergences pointing the way higher, although trend is still down. It looks like the low is in, but again, you never know. I’d prefer to wait for the trend to actually turn higher, and then await pullbacks to get long. Same story with stock indexes. I can make a case for the market going either way. If I had to guess I’d say the lows are in and the market can work higher from here, but I only have that conviction by slightly better then 50/50 odds. The retest of the January lows has gotten a lot of press and the pundits are starting to accept that view, so with the often insidious character of this market lately, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another surprise to the downside, or at least some backing and filling to further confuse the issue. The daily swings have been wild and choppy. This is either bottoming action, or prices are trying to accept these lower levels. It’s too soon to be confident about the bull case yet. I don’t mean to be talking out of both sides of my fingers, but I just can’t have much conviction until the trend has actually reversed to up, which it hasn’t really done yet.

For those few who still trade the CCI, there have been some major developments in the main CCI chat room. I don’t know how accurate the stories are that are flying around the internet. They seem credible, but I don’t want to start rumors if there is no basis. I will simply post one of the links and you can read and decide for yourself. Check out this link and scroll down to the March 15th post (beware the ides of March) and read what one of the oldest and most respected members of this chat room had to say, and why he quit. I have been working on a follow-up article to the one on this site about the chat room with the magic indicator. I hope to finish soon and will post it here.

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