Stocks lower

spy0204.pngStock indexes were lower today. To the right is the etf of the S&P 500. I drew retracement levels from the swing high to the recent swing low. The high of yesterday and today were both very near the 50% retracement level of that swing. Prices also pushed right up into the slower line of the Mesa Adaptive Moving Average lines (the blue lines), which could act as further resistance. Also, the double stochastic in the lower sub-graph is overbought and has notched down a slight amount from a very overbought area. I prefer this indicator to make a nice clean “V” shape, as it did closer to the left of the chart, rather than the long, rounding, drawn out pattern that it just formed. Often when it gets to the top of its range and goes sideways, it implies higher prices, as the indicator has reached the maximum it can travel as prices continue higher. On a conventional stochastic the momentum is still pointing higher. If a re-test of the lows is to occur it should start rolling over in here.
Gold was lower, with prices dipping briefly under $900 basis the April contract. The trend is still up, but several momentum divergences indicated this drop. There may be a few more attempts at higher prices before this bubble pops. More will be known as the character of these attempts unfold and can be analysed, such as three drives that fail to make new highs, or make new highs with further momentum divergences as the trend indicator turns down. Oil turned back up and grains had a nice upmove today. The Baltic Dry Index has been mostly flat the last few days after a slight bounce of the waterfall declines its had.