Stock index slightly positive, oil up, gold little changed

qqqq11161.pngStock indexes staged a late day rally to lift most indexes slightly to the positive side. Gold had been higher, but closed about unchanged, and oil was higher, continuing its change of direction every day. There isn’t really much to add to the commentary of yesterday. I will include the Nasdaq/QQQQ chart along with the momentum indicator. The trend here is clearly to the downside on the daily chart, as it is with the other stock indexes. Momentum is trying to relieve the oversold condition, and if it can continue a bit higher, short positions would have a better entry point than it would be chasing this market on a downside break from here. But the market will do what it wants, not what I want, so will have to be ready to go with it if the previous swing low of five days is taken out. The problem with chasing a breakout with momentum already oversold is the higher possibility of a fake-out to trap shorts and then reverse back up.
Oil looks like it wants to re-test the high of eight days ago. And the dollar momentum is starting to roll back over to the downside. Gisele should be happy. If momentum should roll back down and prices hold the all time low of eight days ago (same time as oil high) a positive divergence could set up and maybe a low will be in place. That’s a lot of maybes. A rally is long overdue, so just looking for possible scenarios that could signal a move higher. I feel more comfortable being the only person on the other side of the boat, although I’m starting for the first time in a very long time to hear some other analysts saying the same thing.

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