Stock indexes edged their way higher today, on very light volume, and in a choppy session. Once again the range of the bars, as can be seen on the QQQQ chart, was very small, and the closing price did not move far from the opening price. The overall trend in the indexes is up, but the day structure does not show much of a trend or facilitation of trade at these levels, at least in the overall indexes. Momentum is clearly up, but getting overbought. The Qs are well above the July high, the Dow is approaching that level, and the S&Ps are still somewhat below. The Qs have been the strongest index and still looks favorable to trade on long side longer term, but would expect a pullback at any time.
Gold is pausing at these levels over the last few days, however short term momentum is now in a buy zone and some more upside could be expected. This is the most crowded trade I’ve seen in many years. The bubble is looking for a pin, but hasn’t found it yet. An overbought market can get very overbought. A good shakeout here would be good for the market and set up a better trade down the road. It is responding to a Fed that doesn’t mind trashing the dollar.
I changed the Trends page. I’ve tracked very few clicks to that page. It takes me a long time to update that everyday, and with so few people looking at it, it isn’t worth my effort. I am limiting the trend summary to the major broad indexes, as well as gold and silver. I am including the three day pivot direction and level in place of the comment section. Maybe this will be more useful than tracking all the individual sectors.