Gold up, Stocks down

gold0720.gifThe gold market continued its advance. Prices came off the highs a bit, but still made a solid advance, as it looks like the downtrend that had been in place is over for now. Gold has a tendency to make many false trend reversals, but this one may hold. There may be quite a bit of resitance at the $700 level, as there are three swing point near that level since March. I would expect a few days pullback, with support near 671 to 664 area. Any pullbacks should be bought as long as support is not broken. My only worry at this point is gold seems to be driven almost totally by the falling dollar, which is getting oversold and bearish sentiment is very one sided. A correction in dollar would cause gold to pause. If gold were making a move on its own supply demand fundamentals it would be showing uptrends in other currencies.

sp0720.gifThe stock market had a good selloff today. I was worried about the upthrusts in many of the indexes. Some of the loss was recovered by the close. The S&P spider was hit harder than the Dow or Nasdaq. The low of the day came all the way down to the support level on my trend indicator (dark blue line), and to the downtrending line connecting the triple top area, which was resistance and should now be support, although probably a little too obvious since everyoneis looking at the same level. At least prices closed above, as well as above the low of two days ago. There was not really a momentum divergence to cause concern, so have to assume uptrend still intact, at least as long as these levels hold. The next test back up to those upthrust bars should be important. If market break the trend support I’ll re-evaluate.

qqq0720.gifThe Nasdaq QQQQ suffered less than half the loss of the S&P. It helf the upper line of the trend indicator, and the CCI in the subgraph is still above the bullish 100 line. The upthrust left on yesterday’s candle was cause for concern and indicated some downside possible, but downmove was relatively shallow concidering the extent of the prior impulse moves up. The uptrend remains intact. A little more downside would be healthy for this market. I plan to buy any pullbacks as long as trend remains up. If a test of the high of the upthrust from yesterday fails on any test I’ll reconsider.